By Geresu Tufa

The naked hostility of Ginbot 7 and significant sections of the Amhara elite against the Oromo national liberation struggle came to the surface over the last month.

By Geresu Tufa

I watched Ethiopian Satellite Television Service, ESAT’s, interview with Dr. Trevor Trueman, chairman of Oromia Support Group, a non-political organization established to raise awareness about human rights abuses in Ethiopia, with great interest.

Dear Obbo Mallasaa:

This is a supplement to letter #2, in which I attempted to convince you that your current path leads to a dead end. In this one, I try making a somewhat detailed case why your grand vision of an EPRDF-dominated Ethiopia is destined for failure. “It’s the economy, stupid.”[1]

Your dream of transforming Ethiopia into a middle-income country in five years notwithstanding, it will take a while to alleviate the deep-rooted economic problems of the country under the best of circumstances. Even with the appropriate and well-targeted policy prescriptions, serious heavy lifting is needed to create the institutions required to begin to address the myriad economic malaise (famine, malnutrition, severe structural unemployment, high inflation, lack of proper housing, lack of economic security, disease etc.) the country has become infamous for. It is believable that Ethiopia’s GDP has been expanding phenomenally in the last few years as claimed.

Dear Obbo Mallasaa:

As promised in my last letter, I shall attempt to convince you that you would be much better off creating a political space for the real opposition than pursuing your current path. I don’t harbor any illusion that you will heed my advice, but I am going to offer it anyway. Broadly speaking, I think you have the following four options. I have called them the impossible, the next to impossible, the most likely and the optimal options.

1. Try and hang on to power by any means necessary. Impossible;
2. Place a well trusted surrogate as the next prime minister, keeping the leadership of TPLF, until the EPRDF is the only alternative to choose from. Your grand political strategy, but next to impossible;